SpaceX and AI

Ayan Mahajan and Vincent Saulino

August 5, 2026

Key Takeaways

  • Is AI a bubble? AI stocks have been skyrocketing with no sign of coming back down, raising the question of whether the rally can last
  • The SpaceX IPO: the stock fell below its pre-IPO value, but that isn’t necessarily a bad sign. Some of the most successful companies, like Facebook, did the same after going public
  • The dangers of AI: as AI becomes more powerful, regulation is needed to keep its risks in check
  • Who should regulate AI: a council of people who understand AI really well, with the authority to set limits and regulations
Bar chart: 2026 year-to-date returns. Semiconductor ETF SOXX up 96%, Nvidia up 28%, Nasdaq up 15.6%, S&P 500 up 11.8%

AI-related stocks have far outpaced the broader market in 2026. The semiconductor ETF SOXX, which holds the chipmakers powering AI, is up 96% this year, while the S&P 500 is up about 12%. Gains this lopsided are why many investors are asking whether AI is in a bubble.

Source: 24/7 Wall St., Oct 5, 2026 (SOXX, Nvidia); Chase, through Sep 30, 2026 (S&P 500, Nasdaq)

Chart of SpaceX (SPCX) key closing prices since its June 2026 IPO at $135: $161 first day, $201.80 record, $108.27 low on Aug 5, $147.79 on Oct 20

SpaceX went public on June 12, 2026 at $135 a share and hit a record close of $201.80 four days later. By August 5, it had fallen to a low of $108.27, well below its IPO price. It has since recovered to about $148.

Source: Wikipedia, “Initial public offering of SpaceX”; Opening Bell Daily, Oct 21, 2026

Bar chart of 90-day returns after IPO: Arm +49.7%, Alibaba +44.8%, SpaceX +9.5%, Facebook -46.6%

A weak start after an IPO isn’t always a bad sign. 90 days after going public, Facebook was down 46.6% from its IPO price and didn’t close above it again until August 2013. SpaceX, by comparison, was up 9.5% at the same point.

Source: Opening Bell Daily, “SpaceX IPO scorecard,” Oct 21, 2026

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